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International Finance Discussion Papers: The Sovereignty Option: The Quebec Referendum and Market Views on the Canadian Dollar (en Inglés)
United States Federal Reserve Board
(Autor)
·
Michael P. Leahy
(Autor)
·
Charles P. Thomas
(Autor)
·
Bibliogov
· Tapa Blanda
International Finance Discussion Papers: The Sovereignty Option: The Quebec Referendum and Market Views on the Canadian Dollar (en Inglés) - Leahy, Michael P. ; Thomas, Charles P. ; United States Federal Reserve Board
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Reseña del libro "International Finance Discussion Papers: The Sovereignty Option: The Quebec Referendum and Market Views on the Canadian Dollar (en Inglés)"
We use exchange traded options on Canadian dollar futures to estimate the market's risk-neutral distribution for the Canadian dollar in the days before and after the Quebec sovereignty referendum. We employ a relatively new technique that places little a priori structure on the estimated distribution. This lack of structure allows the estimated distribution to reflect the multi-modal nature of expectations associated with the referendum's results. The technique is especially suited to circumstances in which a particular event will reduce a large degree of uncertainty prior to the expiration date of the options. Our estimated distributions are consistent with a significant perceived probability that the Canadian dollar would move up or down by as much as 5 percent as a result of the vote.
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